Sahel: jihadist violence could exceed 3,000 incidents in 2026
Violence involving jihadist groups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger could surpass 3,000 incidents in 2026 if the current pace continues, marking an unprecedented level in at least a decade. ACLED has already recorded 2,145 events this year, according to data from the organization reported on Wednesday, September 16.
The number of incidents linked to groups affiliated with Al-Qaeda or the Islamic State in these three countries has risen from 63 in 2016 to 2,845 in 2025. With over 2,100 events recorded before the end of the third quarter of 2026, the current trajectory places central Sahel above the previous annual record.
This increase is particularly driven by the Support Group for Islam and Muslims (JNIM), affiliated with Al-Qaeda, and the Islamic State Province in the Sahel. In February, a JNIM offensive included more than 30 attacks in Burkina Faso, resulting in over 120 deaths among soldiers, forest guards, and Volunteers for the Defense of the Homeland, according to ACLED.
In Niger, the Tillabéri region remains one of the main hotspots. ACLED recorded over 1,200 deaths related to political violence in 2025, more than in any other region of central Sahel. The organization attributes a significant portion of this violence to the Islamic State in the Sahel, while JNIM remains active as well.
The surge in 2026 comes as the global terrorism toll had decreased last year. The Global Terrorism Index 2026 reports 5,582 deaths and 2,944 attacks in 2025, representing declines of 28% and 22%, respectively. However, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali remain ranked as the second, third, and fifth most affected countries by terrorism.
The regional expansion of JNIM, already documented in a report by the International Crisis Group focused on the Sahel, also increases pressure on southern borders. The 2026 report from the Institute for Economics and Peace describes the W-Arly-Pendjari transboundary complex, between Burkina Faso, Niger, and Benin, as an area used by armed groups for movement and retreat.
Border areas are concentrating an increasing share of the threat. According to the same index, 64% of terrorist attacks recorded globally in 2025 occurred within 100 kilometers of an international border, and the tri-border area between Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger is among the most active hotspots.
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