Morocco 2026: what are Benin’s chances against Egypt?

The Egypt–Benin meeting will take place at the Grand Stadium of Agadir on January 5, 2026 at 5:00 PM (AFCON Morocco 2026). Egypt, seven-time African champions — in pursuit of a new trophy since 2010 — finished top of their group undefeated. Benin, for its part, qualified at the last moment by finishing as the best third (3 points) despite two defeats in the group stage. At first glance, the Pharaohs of Egypt are the clear favorites: Hossam Hassan at the head of a rich squad (Mohamed Salah, Omar Marmoush, Trezeguet…) and delivering a “culture of winning” (7 titles, continental record). The Benin Cheetahs, led by Gernot Rohr, nevertheless have unusual assets (first historic 1-0 win against Botswana in the group stage) and will boldly give themselves a chance.

Egypt dominated Group B of the 2026 AFCON by winning two matches (including a labored 1-0 win over Zimbabwe thanks to a Salah moment) and by drawing with Angola, which earned them 7 points and the top of the group. The Egyptians are therefore “invincible and convincing” in the group stage, approaching this round of 16 with favorite status. Their weaknesses were minimal (one goal conceded), but offensive fluency remains to be improved.

Benin, for its part, finished 3rd in Group D with 3 points (1 win, 0 draws, 2 defeats). After an historic first 1-0 win over Botswana (Benin’s first victory in regulation time in CAN), the Cheetahs fell 0-3 to Senegal on the final day, qualifying among the best third-placed teams. Their journey remains remarkable for a nation considered an outsider, and qualification to the Round of 16 is already seen as a feat. The Benin assistant coach, Nabil Trabelsi, also hailed this victory over Botswana as a “historic turning point” for the national team.

Strengths and weaknesses of the teams

• Egypt (Pharaohs) : Built on an attack renowned as “the best on the continent” (Salah, Marmoush, Trezeguet), Egypt relies on its experience and champion mentality. According to their coach Hossam Hassan, Egypt has the “best players” and the “winning mindset” needed to claim an eighth title. Their style of play has sometimes been limited, but their defensive solidity is an asset (two consecutive clean sheets, for instance). The setback against South Africa (needing a penalty) reminds, however, that the Pharaohs must raise their level to prevail in this match.
• Benin (Cheetahs) : Benin has proven its tenacity and cohesion. Under the leadership of players such as Steve Mounié, Junior Olaitan or Tosin Aiyegun, Gernot Rohr’s side can rely on its solidarity and defensive discipline. Its main strength remains the collective: after two group defeats, the Benin players managed to stay focused and secure their ticket to the Round of 16. Their playing rhythm is sometimes slow and they have only scored once in their last five international matches. They will need a level of play “much higher” than that of the group to hope to upset the odds against Egypt.

Head-to-heads and key statistics

The history clearly favors Egypt. The Pharaohs remain undefeated in their last four meetings against Benin, and in their only CAN clash (2-0 for Egypt in 2010). Moreover, recent statistics illustrate the gap in form: before the tournament, Benin had 6 defeats in its last 10 matches (4 wins, 0 draws) while Egypt had three consecutive wins and one draw. In the group stage, Egypt conceded fewer goals (only 1) than Benin (3 conceded in a single match), which testifies to its superior defensive control. This historical and statistical superiority reinforces the idea that Egypt should logically dominate the match.

In tactical terms, Egypt should favor a relatively low block, aiming to control the game and exploit the gaps with its world-class forwards. Against a compact Benin block, the Egyptians could settle for one or two goals to validate their ticket. Benin, for its part, will seek to stay defensively solid and to capitalize on mistakes or set pieces to surprise. Benin’s lack of offensive efficiency is illustrated by the fact that they have scored only once in their last five matches.

The Egypt–Benin duel is thus expected to be imbalanced on paper, because the team of Hossam Hassan, rich in experience in finals, has all the tools to lock down the match. Nevertheless, Benin has nothing to lose and will go all out, inspired by its positive momentum and its tight-knit collective. The North Africans must nevertheless be wary, because any lapse would allow the Cheetahs to believe in the feat.