Guinea: Doumbouya on course for the presidential election, opposition weakened

This vote, awaited for four years, is meant to mark a return to constitutional order after the transition triggered by the overthrow of Alpha Condé in 2021. But the conditions appear largely favorable to the General-President. The adoption of a new Constitution and the obstacles faced by the opposition give Doumbouya a clear advantage.

The main opposition leaders face major difficulties: Alpha Condé and Sidya Touré are excluded by the age limit, while Cellou Dalein Diallo and other leaders are living in exile. The new fundamental law indeed requires that candidates reside on national territory throughout the electoral process. The constitutional referendum of September 21, approved by nearly 90%, now allows Doumbouya to run, whereas the transition charter had prevented him from doing so.

Opponents who remained in the country are no better off. Some, like Aliou Bah, president of the Liberal Democratic Movement, are imprisoned for “offense and defamation” against Doumbouya, while former dignitaries of the Condé regime, including ex-Prime Minister Ibrahima Kassory Fofana, are serving long sentences. A few minor candidacies have emerged, such as those of Ousmane Kaba (Party of Democrats for Hope) and Bouya Konaté (Union for the Defense of Republican Interests), but they remain marginal.

Some observers believe this configuration could provide space for new political forces. Others, more skeptical, point out that the absence of the main traditional parties primarily benefits those in power and that the junta will largely control the election.

While the new electoral code has not yet been published, the December 28 presidential election looks set to be a contest in which Doumbouya, if he runs, will have a considerable advantage over a fragmented and weakened opposition.