Electric vehicles: copper, the main mining challenge by 2040 ahead of cobalt.

The transition to electric vehicles is expected to support the consumption of several metals used in batteries, motors, cables, and charging infrastructure. However, the issue lies not only in the geological availability of resources but also in the ability of mining companies to discover, fund, and bring new deposits into production within timelines compatible with demand growth.

In its report titled Electric Shock, Wood Mackenzie identifies copper as the main mining risk associated with a faster adoption of electric vehicles. The metal is essential for the electrical systems of vehicles, as well as the networks and equipment needed for expanding charging infrastructure.

Copper Facing Particularly Long Mining Timelines

Opening a copper mine generally requires several years, including exploration, feasibility studies, administrative permits, financing, construction, and ramp-up. Expanding existing sites can shorten these timelines, but it remains dependent on geological conditions, available infrastructure, and investment decisions.

According to Wood Mackenzie, this constraint could become more significant than that affecting certain battery metals. A faster increase in electric vehicle sales would mechanically raise the demand for copper, while mining supply cannot be adjusted as quickly.

The report places copper ahead of cobalt among the metals that could limit the pace of the transition from a mining perspective. This assessment concerns the risk of production capacities progressing insufficiently, rather than the short-term depletion of global resources.

However, cobalt remains a strategic metal for several battery technologies. Its exposure to supply risk appears lower in Wood Mackenzie’s analysis, notably because manufacturers are developing chemistries that reduce or eliminate its use. Changes in battery composition could therefore contain the growth in cobalt demand, unlike copper, whose uses in electrical systems are difficult to replace on a large scale.

Prospects will also depend on the pace of electric vehicle adoption, technological advancements, the development of electrical networks, and mining investments. The information available in the cited analysis does not specify the expected copper deficit or the amount of investment needed by 2040.