CAN 2025: Senegal – Egypt, a tense semi-final in Tangier

The Africa Cup of Nations 2025 semifinal between Senegal and Egypt, scheduled for this Wednesday, January 14, 2026 at the Ibn-Batouta Stadium in Tangier, is shaping up to be one of the high points of recent African football. Beyond a mere place in the final, this duel rekindles an intense rivalry nourished by the 2021 AFCON final and the 2022 World Cup playoffs. Two major nations, two distinct styles, one ticket to the final.

This AFCON 2025 semifinal, held in Morocco, brings together two teams accustomed to big occasions. Senegal aims for a new continental final to confirm its status as Africa’s benchmark, while Egypt eyes a historic eighth title. The setting in Tangier, largely secured by the Lions of Teranga, adds an emotional and strategic dimension to this showdown.

Across around fifteen head-to-head meetings, Egypt holds a slight statistical edge. However, the recent dynamics are clearly in Senegal’s favor, having won the 2021 AFCON final and then advanced on penalties in the 2022 World Cup qualifiers. These recent precedents weigh heavily in the mental approach to this semifinal.

Senegalese solidity against Egyptian resilience

The Lions have a clean, controlled run in this AFCON 2025. Defensively solid, able to manage the lows and effective in key moments, they stand out for their high tactical discipline and a notable depth of the squad. Their ability to win tight matches is a major asset at this stage of the competition.

Senegal has a denser and more mobile midfield, capable of imposing the tempo and limiting opponents’ transitions. Egypt, faithful to its DNA, will mainly defend deep and exploit rapid counter-attacks.

The Pharaohs, for their part, had a tougher start to the tournament, before finding their rhythm, notably with a standout victory over Ivory Coast in the quarterfinals. Their path, more stop-start, has forged a competitor’s mindset seasoned for pressure-filled scenarios.

The clash between Sadio Mané and Mohamed Salah will also draw attention. Mané, now more of a creator, brings variety and leadership. Salah remains the Pharaohs’ main attacking weapon, capable of tipping the match with a counter or an individual effort.

But over the course of the game, Senegal’s intensity and the quality of its substitutes could weigh in, especially if the match goes the distance. Egypt will need to show great physical discipline to keep up the pace until the end.

Prediction and likely scenarios

The psychological advantage slightly leans toward Senegal, buoyed by its recent successes against Egypt. However, the pressure surrounding Salah’s quest for his first continental title can also become a powerful engine. The highly favorable atmosphere for Senegal in Tangier and the weather conditions (wind, handling set pieces) are also factors to weigh.

On paper, Senegal appears as a measured favorite thanks to its collective mastery, defensive solidity, and depth of the squad. The most probable scenario remains a tight, low-scoring match where the first goal could be decisive.
Dominant forecast : Senegal victory 1-0 or 2-0.
Alternative scenario : a draw, extra time, or even penalties — an air of déjà vu in this rivalry.