AFCON 2025: a supercomputer predicts the winner
On the eve of the kickoff of the Africa Cup of Nations in Morocco, Opta’s supercomputer names the Atlas Lions as the main contenders for the title ahead of Egypt and Senegal.
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A few days before the kickoff of the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations, Opta’s supercomputer released its projections on the teams most likely to lift the continental trophy in Morocco. AFCON 2025 starts this weekend and will end on January 18, 2026. Despite being the defending champions after their triumph in the previous edition—a 2-1 win over Nigeria in the final—Ivory Coast is nonetheless not at the top of the predictions.
According to Opta’s simulations, Morocco, the host country, emerges as the big favorite of the competition. The Atlas Lions would have a 19.1% chance of winning the tournament, boosted by their status and consistency on the international stage in recent years.
Behind Morocco, Egypt appears as the main outsider. The Pharaohs, seven-time AFCON winners, have an estimated 12.4% chance of lifting the trophy. Right behind them, Senegal rounds out the podium of favorites with 12.3%, confirming their place among the continent’s reliable teams.
Algeria and Nigeria close out the top five title contenders, with 12% and 7.3% chances of triumph, respectively. Two teams used to big occasions, but they’ll have to deal with particularly fierce competition.
Still according to Opta, the standings continue with Tunisia, Ivory Coast, Mali, Cameroon and South Africa — all nations capable of defying the predictions in an AFCON known for its unpredictability.