Lithium: the African supply is progressing in an increasingly volatile market.

The rebound of the first half of the year is established. In its second-quarter activity review, Rio Tinto indicates that the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in Asia reached $22,043 per ton, which is 13% higher than in the first quarter. However, between April 1 and June 30, the index tracked by the group fell from $21,000 to $19,400 per ton, illustrating the extent of short-term fluctuations.

Projections for the second half of the year diverge. Eramet estimated on July 29 that global production growth, fueled by the restart of Australian mines and the development of African projects, would remain insufficient to fully absorb the increase in demand. The group then placed the market consensus around $23,100 per ton for the second half.

Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, for its part, maintained its balance and price forecasts in early July despite the quicker-than-expected restart of the Chinese Jianxiawo mine. The agency estimates the 2026 output from this site at 62,500 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, about 1.5% of global mining supply.

Several African projects gaining momentum

The 2026 report from the U.S. Geological Survey lists hard rock lithium projects at various stages of development or exploration in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Mali, Namibia, Nigeria, Rwanda, and Zimbabwe. This progress does not mean that all of these capacities are already feeding the market.

In the DRC, Benchmark indicates that the Manono North site, operated by Zijin, has started producing and ultimately aims for an annual capacity of 120,000 tons. In Zimbabwe, the Arcadia plant shipped lithium sulfate in 2026, while restrictions on concentrate exports have increased uncertainty about the volumes actually available for foreign refiners.

For African producers, profitability will depend on price levels, as well as energy, transportation, financing, and processing costs. Operations that are already in production and located at the low end of the cost curve are less exposed than a project that still needs funding or construction.

Demand remains supported by electric vehicles and stationary storage. Benchmark recorded 1.85 million electric vehicles sold worldwide in July 2026, up 9% year-on-year, bringing the total for the first seven months to 11.5 million units.