IMF: Global growth around 3% in 2026 despite energy shock

The IMF emphasizes that oil and gas prices remain elevated and that the energy shock is not over. The mobilization of reserves, diversification of supplies, and demand management measures have allowed several economies to absorb part of the rising costs, according to the institution.

However, the disinflation that began after the cost-of-living crisis in 2022 has stalled. Short-term inflation expectations have risen, although they remain largely anchored over a longer horizon. The Fund urges central banks to stay vigilant regarding potential second-round effects related to energy.

Public debt represents another point of vulnerability. The IMF estimates that it is now approaching 100% of global GDP, a level comparable to the peaks observed after World War II. The rise in financing costs is reducing the maneuvering room for many states, particularly emerging economies and low-income countries.

Africa particularly exposed to financing tensions

For sub-Saharan Africa, the Fund stresses that the effects vary significantly by country. Energy-importing economies are more exposed to rising bills for oil, gas, fertilizers, and potentially food, while some commodity-exporting countries may benefit from additional revenues.

Countries with low budget reserves and limited financing capacities remain the most vulnerable. The IMF also notes that the decline in certain bilateral aid is increasing liquidity tensions in several African economies, at a time when debt repayments are becoming heavier.

In its July update of the World Economic Outlook, the Fund had already projected global growth of 3.0% in 2026, followed by 3.4% in 2027. On September 1, Managing Director Kristalina Georgievaconfirmed that the outlook for 2026 had firmed around 3%, while highlighting that the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed and that energy reserves need to be replenished.

The IMF will continue to assess the impact of the war, energy prices, and tensions in financial markets in its upcoming publications. Julie Kozack indicated that the institution remains ready to support countries facing financing needs, while emphasizing the necessity of maintaining price stability and establishing credible medium-term budgetary trajectories.