Germany: Gas stocks fall to 53%, a 15-year low for early September

A year earlier, facilities showed around 71% fill at the start of September. According to INES, the current level reflects a particularly slow replenishment season, even though operators have reserved capacities corresponding to about 83% of available storage volumes.

The association’s models indicate that a fill rate of about 77% remains technically achievable by 1 November 1. To reach this, however, more gas would need to be injected over the next two months than during the previous three months combined. According to Sebastian Heinermann, a pace close to one terawatt-hour per day would be necessary, a level not reached in the past three weeks.

If injections continue at the recent pace, Germany would only reach about 63% fill by 1 November 1, according to INES CEO Sebastian Heinermann. The gap between this scenario and the technical potential of 77% now represents one of the main challenges in winter preparedness.

This situation does not mean a shortage is inevitable. In a winter with normal temperatures, INES estimates that a level of 77% by 1 November 1 would cover demand and still leave about 38% of gas in storage by 1 April 1 2027. However, the risk would increase sharply during an exceptionally cold period.

A very cold winter would put reserves under pressure

In its extreme cold scenario, INES considers that a fill level of 77% would not guarantee full demand coverage. On certain days in January, the shortfall between available supply and needs could exceed 25%, according to the association’s simulations.

The German energy regulator had noted at the end of August that the country has significant import and storage capacities and that gas remains available on the market. Authorities are monitoring fill levels and say they can activate additional measures if supply risks worsen.

The weakness of German stocks is part of a tense European situation. High gas prices and disruptions in global supply have reduced the economic incentive to store gas during the summer, while several northern European countries enter the final part of the injection season with reserves lower than in recent years.

Economic incentives demanded by operators

INES explains the slow filling by unfavorable market conditions. Storage is generally profitable when gas bought in summer costs less than that delivered in winter. However, the price gap has narrowed and sometimes becomes negative once storage fees and levies are added.

The association proposes, among other measures, reducing certain network tariffs, removing a fee applied to storage use, and facilitating preferential public financing for injected volumes. These proposals come from the storage operators themselves and still need to be decided by public authorities.

Germany had already experienced a severe strain on its gas supply in 2022, following the reduction of Russian flows linked to the war in Ukraine. Since then, the country has developed its liquefied natural gas import capacities, but the level of underground reserves remains a central factor in meeting winter consumption peaks.